Authors:
- Mathematical evidence of non-robustness of Mmax parameter are presented
- Robust analog of Mmax is presented
- Evidence in support of possible realization of sustainable development is presented
- Distribution laws typical for natural disasters are examined
- Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras
Part of the book series: Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research (NTHR, volume 30)
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Table of contents (7 chapters)
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Front Matter
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Back Matter
About this book
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions.
The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected.
This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.
Reviews
From the reviews:
“This book is, therefore, timely and should be welcomed by those working in earthquake forecasting … . an important reference text that should be useful to those seeking to estimate loss and quantify probabilities of rare events using the conventional approach of nipping and tucking the seismic database to the Poissonian figure. Those seeking to model the real Earth seismic expression may also find it a useful start point.” (Joan L. Latchman, Mathematical Geosciences, Vol. 43, 2011)Authors and Affiliations
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Moscow, Russian Federation
V. Pisarenko, M. Rodkin
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis
Authors: V. Pisarenko, M. Rodkin
Series Title: Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9171-0
Publisher: Springer Dordrecht
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental Science, Earth and Environmental Science (R0)
Copyright Information: Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Hardcover ISBN: 978-90-481-9170-3Published: 02 August 2010
Softcover ISBN: 978-94-007-3285-8Published: 13 October 2012
eBook ISBN: 978-90-481-9171-0Published: 20 July 2010
Series ISSN: 1878-9897
Series E-ISSN: 2213-6959
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XIV, 190
Additional Information: Revised and expanded translation
Topics: Geophysics and Environmental Physics, Natural Hazards, Mathematical and Computational Engineering, Geophysics/Geodesy, Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, Earth Sciences, general