Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XIII

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2. Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms

   • V. I. Keilis-Borok

   Pages 1-36

3. Hierarchical Models of Seismicity

   • M. Shnirman, E. Blanter

   Pages 37-69

4. Models of Dynamics of Block-and-Fault Systems

   • A. Soloviev, A. Ismail-Zadeh

   Pages 71-139

5. Earthquake Prediction

   • V. Kossobokov, P. Shebalin

   Pages 141-207

6. Earthquake Prediction Strategies: A Theoretical Analysis

   • G. M. Molchan

   Pages 209-237

7. Recognition of Earthquake-Prone Areas

   • A. Gorshkov, V. Kossobokov, A. Soloviev

   Pages 239-310

8. Back Matter

   Pages 311-338

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The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais­ ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth­ quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster­ preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma­ jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro­ vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte­ gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.

• Earthquakes
• Natural Hazards
• aftershock
• earthquake
• earthquake prediction
• geophysics
• nonlinear dynamics
• seismic
• seismology

"This is an excellent book, [...] the first (to my knowledge) to deal with the Dynamics of the Lithosphere from the point of view of Dynamical Systems. [...] The book is well written and clearly organized. Every chapter is self-contained and addressed to graduate students and researchers in general." (Antoni M. Correig Blanchar, Newsletter of the European Geophysical Society, Oct. 15. 2003)

• Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA

  Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok

• Russian Academy of Sciences International Institute of Earthquake Prediction, Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia

  Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok, Alexandre A. Soloviev

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